SK Brann vs. Molde FK: O/U 7.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$3.0K
$108.4
94.3¢ → 99.5¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 94.2¢ | $2.7K | $2.9K | +$120.97 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 97.3¢ | $57.05 | $58.21 | +$1.16 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 95¢ | $24.52 | $22.84 | -$2.03 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 2.7¢ | $26.16 | $14.54 | -$11.63 | 48% 8966-9597 (18563) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Overavg 2.6¢ | $1.69 | $1.62 | -$0.06 | 58% 10670-7656 (18326) |
Invested
$2,741.51
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$120.97
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$57.05
Value
$58.21
PnL
+$1.16
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
Invested
$24.52
Value
$22.84
PnL
-$2.03
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
Invested
$26.16
Value
$14.54
PnL
-$11.63
Record
48%
8966-9597 (18563)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$1.69
Value
$1.62
PnL
-$0.06
Record
58%
10670-7656 (18326)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.