Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (98%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
SK Brann vs. Molde FK: O/U 6.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 2.5¢ · $18 held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Over
4
Over 75%
$17.92
-$489.68
9.3¢ → 2.5¢
-73% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 3%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 98%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 93¢ | $8.37 | $8.78 | +$0.41 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Overavg 11.1¢ | $24.42 | $5.5 | -$18.92 | 50% 11182-10991 (22173) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 9.2¢ | $5.1K | $2.54 | -$464.78 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Overavg 17¢ | $7.48 | $1.1 | -$6.38 | 58% 10670-7658 (18328) |
HRTrading<$100Invested
$8.37
Value
$8.78
PnL
+$0.41
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
Invested
$24.42
Value
$5.5
PnL
-$18.92
Record
50%
11182-10991 (22173)
Invested
$5,087.31
Value
$2.54
PnL
-$464.78
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$7.48
Value
$1.1
PnL
-$6.38
Record
58%
10670-7658 (18328)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.