SK Brann vs. Molde FK: O/U 5.5

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 79¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1

Over21¢Under79¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$106.59

Smart Money Entry

65.8¢ → 79¢

+20% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over21%

Under79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$871.82

Total Shares1,254

Combined PnL+$46.08

Over2 traders

Total Value$543.19

Total Shares1,325

Combined PnL+$60.51

Under — 71%Over — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (4 on Over) disagree here.

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 73.2¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$123.63	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
└ Under leg	Underavg 73.2¢	$1.0K	$786.35	-$214.15
└ Over leg	Overavg 30¢	$217.24	$307.76	+$90.52
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 65.3¢	$778.12	$828.37	+$50.25	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
RN1CTR	Overavg 35.3¢	$446.13	$525.61	+$79.48	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 33.2¢	$179.5	$158.06	-$21.44	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
└ Under leg	Underavg 73.2¢	$80.48	$81.89	+$1.41
└ Over leg	Overavg 33.2¢	$99.02	$76.17	-$22.85
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 35.3¢	$36.54	$17.58	-$18.97	48% 8966-9597 (18563)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 80.7¢	$259.74	$16.85	-$2.52	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 80¢	$14.17	$11.69	-$2.48	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 79.7¢	$8.88	$9.6	+$0.73	52% 7503-6793 (14296)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Underavg 52¢	$5.2	$5.3	+$0.1	85% 5885-1004 (6889)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,217.74

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$123.63

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

Both legs:

Under$1,000.573.2¢-$214.15

Over$217.2430¢+$90.52

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$778.12

Value

$828.37

PnL

+$50.25

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$446.13

Value

$525.61

PnL

+$79.48

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

fooooolARB<$100

Over

Invested

$179.5

Value

$158.06

PnL

-$21.44

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

Both legs:

Under$80.4873.2¢+$1.41

Over$99.0233.2¢-$22.85

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$36.54

Value

$17.58

PnL

-$18.97

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$259.74

Value

$16.85

PnL

-$2.52

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$14.17

Value

$11.69

PnL

-$2.48

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$8.88

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$0.73

Record

52%

7503-6793 (14296)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Under

Invested

$5.2

Value

$5.3

PnL

+$0.1

Record

85%

5885-1004 (6889)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 79%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (4 on Over) disagree here.

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.