SK Brann vs. Molde FK: O/U 4.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 66¢ · $181 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$181.14
-$5.99
46.9¢ → 65.5¢
+40% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Underavg 34.3¢ | $54.01 | $69.32 | +$15.31 | 48% 8942-9563 (18505) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Overavg 57.8¢ | $52.66 | $51.04 | -$1.62 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 64.8¢ | $263.22 | $46.83 | -$21.36 | 58% 42674-31054 (73728) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 34¢ | $9.07 | $11.76 | +$2.68 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 65¢ | $3.25 | $2.2 | -$1 | 52% 7499-6786 (14285) |
Invested
$54.01
Value
$69.32
PnL
+$15.31
Record
48%
8942-9563 (18505)
Invested
$52.66
Value
$51.04
PnL
-$1.62
Record
50%
11176-10983 (22159)
VeryLucky888Invested
$263.22
Value
$46.83
PnL
-$21.36
Record
58%
42674-31054 (73728)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$9.07
Value
$11.76
PnL
+$2.68
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
Invested
$3.25
Value
$2.2
PnL
-$1
Record
52%
7499-6786 (14285)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.