SK Brann vs. Molde FK: O/U 3.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (55%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 55%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$72.47

Smart Money Entry

94.9¢ → 100¢

+5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,319

Combined PnL+$22.22

Under5 traders

Total Value$725.69

Total Shares2,011

Combined PnL-$94.69

Over — 55%Under — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Overavg 99¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$15.16	95% 23103-1165 (24268)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 24.7¢	$364.58	$530.61	+$166.02	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 44.3¢	$368.61	$185.01	-$260.21	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
MR MrBently	Overavg 59¢	$101.48	$110.08	+$6.88	53% 551-493 (1044)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 64¢	$42.26	$42.79	+$0.53	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 97.5¢	$39.45	$39.1	-$0.36	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
ZX zxc368<$100	Overavg 99.9¢	$13.73	$13.73	+$0.01	98% 13363-214 (13577)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 64¢	$5.12	$5.12	+$0	48% 8966-9597 (18563)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 43.6¢	$6.27	$4.63	-$1.65	52% 7503-6793 (14296)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 22¢	$2.2	$3.6	+$1.4	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$2.11	$1.85	-$0.26	54% 57169-49417 (106586)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Over

Invested

$2,001.38

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$15.16

Record

95%

23103-1165 (24268)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$364.58

Value

$530.61

PnL

+$166.02

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$368.61

Value

$185.01

PnL

-$260.21

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

MrBently

Over

Invested

$101.48

Value

$110.08

PnL

+$6.88

Record

53%

551-493 (1044)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$42.26

Value

$42.79

PnL

+$0.53

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$39.45

Value

$39.1

PnL

-$0.36

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

zxc368<$100

Over

Invested

$13.73

Value

$13.73

PnL

+$0.01

Record

98%

13363-214 (13577)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$5.12

Value

$5.12

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.27

Value

$4.63

PnL

-$1.65

Record

52%

7503-6793 (14296)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.2

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$1.4

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.11

Value

$1.85

PnL

-$0.26

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.