Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (89%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

SK Brann vs. Molde FK: O/U 2.5

6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 11¢ · $184 held · ended Nov 1

Over89¢Under11¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 100%

Total Value

$183.57

Combined PnL

$44.87

Smart Money Entry

13.6¢ → 11.1¢

-18% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 89%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over89%

Under11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$183.57

Total Shares1,019

Combined PnL+$44.87

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Underavg 7.7¢	$34.53	$103.71	+$69.19	54% 57146-49404 (106550)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 6.9¢	$14.09	$47.2	+$33.11	48% 8942-9563 (18505)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 26.9¢	$82.4	$21.45	-$60.96	58% 42674-31054 (73728)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 10.5¢	$4.69	$10.28	+$5.59	50% 24945-24626 (49571)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$2.6	$0.7	-$2.06	52% 7499-6786 (14285)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 10.2¢	$0.23	$0.24	+$0.01	50% 11176-10983 (22159)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$34.53

Value

$103.71

PnL

+$69.19

Record

54%

57146-49404 (106550)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.09

Value

$47.2

PnL

+$33.11

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$82.4

Value

$21.45

PnL

-$60.96

Record

58%

42674-31054 (73728)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.69

Value

$10.28

PnL

+$5.59

Record

50%

24945-24626 (49571)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.6

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$2.06

Record

52%

7499-6786 (14285)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.23

Value

$0.24

PnL

+$0.01

Record

50%

11176-10983 (22159)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 89%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance12.6%

11.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$691.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

791.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.