Spread: Molde FK (-1.5)

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold SK Brann (43%) · SK Brann at 85¢ · $35K held · ended Nov 1

Molde FK16¢SK Brann84¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

SK Brann

Consensus Traders

SK Brann 43%

Total Value

$35.0K

Combined PnL

$265.3

Smart Money Entry

85.6¢ → 84.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralSK Brann at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

SK Brann

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Molde FK16%

SK Brann85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

SK Brann6 traders

Total Value$32.4K

Total Shares37,135

Combined PnL+$65.82

Molde FK8 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares16,701

Combined PnL+$199.48

SK Brann — 43%Molde FK — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on SK Brann. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSK Brann 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMolde FK 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Molde FK 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FA fakeky	SK Brannavg 87.2¢	$17.5K	$17.4K	-$43.78	75% 44-15 (59)
QSQL	SK Brannavg 84.4¢	$8.6K	$8.6K	-$43.19	57% 13-10 (23)
GO GoalLineGhost	SK Brannavg 82.2¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$41.28	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
RN1CTR	Molde FKavg 14.5¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$110.69	54% 57146-49404 (106550)
AD adururu	SK Brannavg 83¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$98.42	53% 387-341 (728)
OX oxe78sh4w98	SK Brannavg 82.9¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$10.7	53% 454-406 (860)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Molde FKavg 14.2¢	$372.67	$418.64	+$45.97	59% 46883-33151 (80034)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Molde FKavg 14.5¢	$339.21	$363.66	+$24.45	49% 13013-13570 (26583)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Molde FKavg 11¢	$53.76	$63.32	+$9.55	48% 8942-9563 (18505)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Molde FKavg 17¢	$52.24	$59.7	+$7.46	50% 33839-33425 (67264)
FO foooool<$100	SK Brannavg 81¢	$32.39	$34.79	+$2.4	50% 11176-10983 (22159)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Molde FKavg 16¢	$14.28	$13.83	-$0.45	53% 5610-5034 (10644)
RO Rocko33CTR<$100	Molde FKavg 13¢	$13	$13	+$0	63% 1197-693 (1890)
poshposhCTR<$100	Molde FKavg 10.3¢	$6.91	$8.71	+$1.8	58% 10657-7637 (18294)

fakeky

SK Brann

Invested

$17,488.1

Value

$17.4K

PnL

-$43.78

Record

75%

44-15 (59)

QSQL

SK Brann

Invested

$8,601

Value

$8.6K

PnL

-$43.19

Record

57%

13-10 (23)

GoalLineGhost

SK Brann

Invested

$3,379.18

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$41.28

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

RN1CTR

Molde FK

Invested

$1,535.68

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$110.69

Record

54%

57146-49404 (106550)

adururu

SK Brann

Invested

$1,499.28

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$98.42

Record

53%

387-341 (728)

oxe78sh4w98

SK Brann

Invested

$1,479.03

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$10.7

Record

53%

454-406 (860)

UpTheBluesCTR

Molde FK

Invested

$372.67

Value

$418.64

PnL

+$45.97

Record

59%

46883-33151 (80034)

LuckyLooCTR

Molde FK

Invested

$339.21

Value

$363.66

PnL

+$24.45

Record

49%

13013-13570 (26583)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Molde FK

Invested

$53.76

Value

$63.32

PnL

+$9.55

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Molde FK

Invested

$52.24

Value

$59.7

PnL

+$7.46

Record

50%

33839-33425 (67264)

foooool<$100

SK Brann

Invested

$32.39

Value

$34.79

PnL

+$2.4

Record

50%

11176-10983 (22159)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Molde FK

Invested

$14.28

Value

$13.83

PnL

-$0.45

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

Rocko33CTR<$100

Molde FK

Invested

$13

Value

$13

PnL

+$0

Record

63%

1197-693 (1890)

poshposhCTR<$100

Molde FK

Invested

$6.91

Value

$8.71

PnL

+$1.8

Record

58%

10657-7637 (18294)

Research grade

NeutralSK Brann at 85%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

SK Brann

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on SK Brann. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSK Brann 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMolde FK 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Molde FK 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that SK Brann wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.