Will Molde FK win on 2026-11-01?
10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 62¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
13
No 77%
1 arb excluded
$6.5K
-$575.88
59¢ → 61.5¢
+4% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 13 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 59¢ | $3.2K | $3.3K | -$87.97 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 58¢ | $893.63 | $1.2K | +$307.72 | 50% 25648-25477 (51125) |
 Excession6CTR | Yesavg 41¢ | $1.8K | $990 | -$855 | 52% 209-192 (401) |
 RN1 | Noavg 63.3¢ | $292.31 | $290.87 | -$1.44 | 54% 57146-49404 (106550) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 57.7¢ | $247.99 | $244 | +$12.78 | 58% 42674-31054 (73728) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Noavg 77.4¢ | $213.43 | $186.07 | -$27.36 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 77.4¢ | $124.83 | $97.6 | -$27.23 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 39.6¢ | $88.6 | $88.47 | -$0.13 | |
LZ lzh1 | Noavg 59¢ | $118.68 | $156.9 | +$38.22 | 43% 471-634 (1105) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $39.2 | $42.7 | +$1.05 | 50% 7122-7165 (14287) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $39.04 | $38.72 | -$0.32 | 49% 13013-13570 (26583) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $29.3 | $31.76 | +$2.46 | 48% 8942-9563 (18505) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $11.11 | $17.68 | +$6.57 | 58% 10657-7637 (18294) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $10.87 | $10.78 | -$0.09 | 54% 6424-5410 (11834) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 62.5¢ | $5.43 | $5.52 | +$0.09 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100 | Yesavg 33.5¢ | $3.35 | $3.4 | +$0.05 | 58% 18782-13844 (32626) |
Invested
$3,175.51
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$87.97
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
Invested
$893.63
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$307.72
Record
50%
25648-25477 (51125)
Excession6CTRInvested
$1,844.99
Value
$990
PnL
-$855
Record
52%
209-192 (401)
RN1Invested
$292.31
Value
$290.87
PnL
-$1.44
Record
54%
57146-49404 (106550)
VeryLucky888Invested
$247.99
Value
$244
PnL
+$12.78
Record
58%
42674-31054 (73728)
Invested
$213.43
Value
$186.07
PnL
-$27.36
Record
50%
11176-10983 (22159)
Both legs:
Invested
$118.68
Value
$156.9
PnL
+$38.22
Record
43%
471-634 (1105)
Invested
$39.2
Value
$42.7
PnL
+$1.05
Record
50%
7122-7165 (14287)
Invested
$39.04
Value
$38.72
PnL
-$0.32
Record
49%
13013-13570 (26583)
Invested
$29.3
Value
$31.76
PnL
+$2.46
Record
48%
8942-9563 (18505)
poshposh<$100Invested
$11.11
Value
$17.68
PnL
+$6.57
Record
58%
10657-7637 (18294)
Invested
$10.87
Value
$10.78
PnL
-$0.09
Record
54%
6424-5410 (11834)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.43
Value
$5.52
PnL
+$0.09
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
Invested
$3.35
Value
$3.4
PnL
+$0.05
Record
58%
18782-13844 (32626)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.