SK Brann vs. Molde FK: Both Teams to Score
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 89¢ · $683 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$682.7
-$1.08
81¢ → 89¢
+10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO Forecastication2 | Yesavg 75¢ | $356.25 | $361 | +$2.38 | 50% 7122-7165 (14287) |
ZX zxc368 | Yesavg 99.9¢ | $195.32 | $174.01 | -$21.31 | 98% 13358-214 (13572) |
FO foooool | Yesavg 76¢ | $123.12 | $144.18 | +$21.06 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 21¢ | $6.71 | $3.51 | -$3.2 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
Invested
$356.25
Value
$361
PnL
+$2.38
Record
50%
7122-7165 (14287)
Invested
$195.32
Value
$174.01
PnL
-$21.31
Record
98%
13358-214 (13572)
Invested
$123.12
Value
$144.18
PnL
+$21.06
Record
50%
11176-10983 (22159)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$6.71
Value
$3.51
PnL
-$3.2
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.