Will SK Brann win on 2026-11-01?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 69¢ · $222 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$221.83
$19.43
60.1¢ → 68.5¢
+14% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO foooool<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $92.43 | $94.52 | +$2.09 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 52.4¢ | $65.81 | $81.58 | +$15.77 | 50% 25648-25477 (51125) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $16.19 | $16.19 | -$0.12 | 57% 29226-21613 (50839) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $12.2 | $13.7 | +$1.3 | 59% 30673-21383 (52056) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 35.1¢ | $12.64 | $12.59 | -$0.05 | 54% 6424-5410 (11834) |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $2.8 | $3.25 | +$0.45 | 58% 18782-13844 (32626) |
Invested
$92.43
Value
$94.52
PnL
+$2.09
Record
50%
11176-10983 (22159)
Invested
$65.81
Value
$81.58
PnL
+$15.77
Record
50%
25648-25477 (51125)
Invested
$16.19
Value
$16.19
PnL
-$0.12
Record
57%
29226-21613 (50839)
Invested
$12.2
Value
$13.7
PnL
+$1.3
Record
59%
30673-21383 (52056)
Invested
$12.64
Value
$12.59
PnL
-$0.05
Record
54%
6424-5410 (11834)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$3.25
PnL
+$0.45
Record
58%
18782-13844 (32626)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.