Will Viking FK win on 2026-10-30?

13 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (87%) · No at 94¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 30

Yes7¢No93¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 87%

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$71.79

Smart Money Entry

84.5¢ → 93.5¢

+11% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares5,678

Combined PnL+$67.99

Yes2 traders

Total Value$14.07

Total Shares78

Combined PnL+$3.8

No — 87%Yes — 13%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 81¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$26.35	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
RN1	Noavg 93¢	$877.37	$882.09	+$4.72	54% 56326-48479 (104805)
oieshfn345	Noavg 88¢	$731.61	$770.66	+$39.06	57% 1677-1255 (2932)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Noavg 80¢	$480	$492	+$9	54% 4856-4082 (8938)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 84.8¢	$350.35	$338.75	-$11.6	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 83.7¢	$309.34	$303.24	-$6.1	59% 45380-31733 (77113)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 81.8¢	$480.98	$137.62	+$14.05	58% 41507-30134 (71641)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 81¢	$69.66	$70.52	+$0.86	58% 28421-20980 (49401)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 87¢	$66.92	$63.08	-$3.85	50% 10770-10596 (21366)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 92¢	$52.02	$49.75	-$2.27	38% 3209-5230 (8439)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 87¢	$32.06	$30.22	-$1.84	49% 12488-12848 (25336)
RA rabbitfoot1CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$10	$13.85	+$3.85	53% 1128-987 (2115)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 80¢	$4	$4.13	+$0.13	47% 2270-2553 (4823)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 92¢	$4.6	$4.1	-$0.5	54% 6194-5243 (11437)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$0.27	$0.22	-$0.04	38% 377-620 (997)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,767.62

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$26.35

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

RN1

Invested

$877.37

Value

$882.09

PnL

+$4.72

Record

54%

56326-48479 (104805)

oieshfn345

Invested

$731.61

Value

$770.66

PnL

+$39.06

Record

57%

1677-1255 (2932)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Invested

$480

Value

$492

PnL

+$9

Record

54%

4856-4082 (8938)

SnakeBall

Invested

$350.35

Value

$338.75

PnL

-$11.6

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$309.34

Value

$303.24

PnL

-$6.1

Record

59%

45380-31733 (77113)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$480.98

Value

$137.62

PnL

+$14.05

Record

58%

41507-30134 (71641)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$69.66

Value

$70.52

PnL

+$0.86

Record

58%

28421-20980 (49401)

foooool<$100

Invested

$66.92

Value

$63.08

PnL

-$3.85

Record

50%

10770-10596 (21366)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$52.02

Value

$49.75

PnL

-$2.27

Record

38%

3209-5230 (8439)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$32.06

Value

$30.22

PnL

-$1.84

Record

49%

12488-12848 (25336)

rabbitfoot1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$13.85

PnL

+$3.85

Record

53%

1128-987 (2115)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

Value

$4.13

PnL

+$0.13

Record

47%

2270-2553 (4823)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.1

PnL

-$0.5

Record

54%

6194-5243 (11437)

OddstormCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$0.04

Record

38%

377-620 (997)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.