FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Viking FK: O/U 3.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 100¢ · $728 held · ended Oct 30

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

Total Value

$727.85

Combined PnL

-$37.03

Smart Money Entry

83.2¢ → 100¢

+20% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$690.72

Total Shares743

Combined PnL+$67.66

Under5 traders

Total Value$37.13

Total Shares459

Combined PnL-$104.69

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 94¢	$363.29	$365.95	+$2.66	54% 56326-48479 (104805)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 71.2¢	$203.41	$268.24	+$64.84	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
FO foooool<$100	Overavg 74.8¢	$52	$49	-$2.99	50% 10770-10596 (21366)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Underavg 40¢	$119.5	$16.43	-$103.07	58% 28421-20980 (49401)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Underavg 3¢	$1.5	$9	+$7.5	47% 4525-5012 (9537)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 58¢	$4.36	$7.52	+$3.16	38% 3209-5230 (8439)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Underavg 27.8¢	$16.21	$6.42	-$9.79	59% 45380-31733 (77113)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$2.32	$2.79	+$0.46	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.5	+$0.2	47% 2270-2553 (4823)

RN1

Over

Invested

$363.29

Value

$365.95

PnL

+$2.66

Record

54%

56326-48479 (104805)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$203.41

Value

$268.24

PnL

+$64.84

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

foooool<$100

Over

Invested

$52

Value

$49

PnL

-$2.99

Record

50%

10770-10596 (21366)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Under

Invested

$119.5

Value

$16.43

PnL

-$103.07

Record

58%

28421-20980 (49401)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.5

Value

PnL

+$7.5

Record

47%

4525-5012 (9537)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$4.36

Value

$7.52

PnL

+$3.16

Record

38%

3209-5230 (8439)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.21

Value

$6.42

PnL

-$9.79

Record

59%

45380-31733 (77113)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.32

Value

$2.79

PnL

+$0.46

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0.2

Record

47%

2270-2553 (4823)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.