FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Viking FK: O/U 2.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 100¢ · $342 held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 43%
$342.2
$35.33
79.3¢ → 100¢
+26% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 78.4¢ | $195.98 | $238.27 | +$42.29 | 50% 24858-24564 (49422) |
 RN1<$100 | Overavg 77¢ | $47.14 | $48.36 | +$1.22 | 54% 56326-48479 (104805) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 21¢ | $29.4 | $29.4 | +$0 | 58% 28421-20980 (49401) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 97¢ | $19.4 | $19.99 | +$0.59 | 49% 12488-12848 (25336) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Underavg 11¢ | $2.75 | $5.25 | +$2.5 | 59% 9935-6911 (16846) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 22¢ | $10.12 | $0.92 | -$9.2 | 59% 45380-31733 (77113) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 7¢ | $2.09 | $0.01 | -$2.07 | 38% 3209-5230 (8439) |
Invested
$195.98
Value
$238.27
PnL
+$42.29
Record
50%
24858-24564 (49422)
RN1<$100Invested
$47.14
Value
$48.36
PnL
+$1.22
Record
54%
56326-48479 (104805)
Invested
$29.4
Value
$29.4
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
28421-20980 (49401)
Invested
$19.4
Value
$19.99
PnL
+$0.59
Record
49%
12488-12848 (25336)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$2.75
Value
$5.25
PnL
+$2.5
Record
59%
9935-6911 (16846)
Invested
$10.12
Value
$0.92
PnL
-$9.2
Record
59%
45380-31733 (77113)
Invested
$2.09
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$2.07
Record
38%
3209-5230 (8439)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.