FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Viking FK: O/U 1.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 33%
$5.7K
-$931.77
92.7¢ → 100¢
+8% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO Forecastication2 | Overavg 92.7¢ | $5.8K | $3.1K | $-2.7K | 50% 6970-6970 (13940) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 6¢ | $283.26 | $2.4K | +$2.1K | 54% 56326-48479 (104805) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 7.2¢ | $309.69 | $138.7 | -$170.99 | 50% 24858-24564 (49422) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 7¢ | $9.1 | $65 | +$55.9 | 50% 10770-10596 (21366) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 92¢ | $4.9 | $2.67 | -$2.24 | 52% 4004-3650 (7654) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 7¢ | $207.13 | $1.47 | -$205.65 | 59% 45380-31733 (77113) |
Invested
$5,832.03
Value
$3.1K
PnL
$-2.7K
Record
50%
6970-6970 (13940)
RN1CTRInvested
$283.26
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$2.1K
Record
54%
56326-48479 (104805)
Invested
$309.69
Value
$138.7
PnL
-$170.99
Record
50%
24858-24564 (49422)
Invested
$9.1
Value
$65
PnL
+$55.9
Record
50%
10770-10596 (21366)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.9
Value
$2.67
PnL
-$2.24
Record
52%
4004-3650 (7654)
Invested
$207.13
Value
$1.47
PnL
-$205.65
Record
59%
45380-31733 (77113)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.