Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-3.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Viking FK (40%) · Viking FK at 88¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Viking FK
5
Viking FK 40%
$2.1K
-$34.97
87.6¢ → 88¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralViking FK at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Viking FKavg 87.8¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$7.02 | 50% 24858-24564 (49422) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | FK Bodø/Glimtavg 20.4¢ | $148.21 | $119.71 | -$28.5 | 59% 45380-31733 (77113) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Viking FKavg 74¢ | $21.95 | $25.06 | +$3.11 | 49% 18995-19405 (38400) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | FK Bodø/Glimtavg 26¢ | $7.71 | $4.6 | -$3.11 | 50% 33199-32726 (65925) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | FK Bodø/Glimtavg 10¢ | $1 | $1.55 | +$0.55 | 52% 4004-3650 (7654) |
Invested
$1,979.28
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$7.02
Record
50%
24858-24564 (49422)
Invested
$148.21
Value
$119.71
PnL
-$28.5
Record
59%
45380-31733 (77113)
Invested
$21.95
Value
$25.06
PnL
+$3.11
Record
49%
18995-19405 (38400)
Invested
$7.71
Value
$4.6
PnL
-$3.11
Record
50%
33199-32726 (65925)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1
Value
$1.55
PnL
+$0.55
Record
52%
4004-3650 (7654)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.