Will FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Viking FK end in a draw?
6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 87¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 55%
$1.1K
-$45.81
85.8¢ → 86.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 85¢ | $682.56 | $664.78 | -$17.78 | 57% 1677-1255 (2932) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 86.6¢ | $131.69 | $131.6 | -$0.09 | 50% 24858-24564 (49422) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 15.8¢ | $137.23 | $117.52 | -$19.71 | 59% 45380-31733 (77113) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 91.9¢ | $46.4 | $44.94 | -$1.46 | 54% 6194-5243 (11437) |
FO foooool<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $51.67 | $43.71 | -$7.96 | 50% 10770-10596 (21366) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 91.1¢ | $34.33 | $32.58 | -$1.75 | 38% 3209-5230 (8439) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 80.9¢ | $9.18 | $9.3 | +$0.73 | 52% 4004-3650 (7654) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $4.08 | $5.88 | +$1.8 | 49% 12488-12848 (25336) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $1.67 | $1.87 | +$0.21 | 50% 33199-32726 (65925) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $1.19 | $1.41 | +$0.21 | 47% 2270-2553 (4823) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $0.33 | $0.33 | -$0 | 54% 56326-48479 (104805) |
oieshfn345Invested
$682.56
Value
$664.78
PnL
-$17.78
Record
57%
1677-1255 (2932)
Invested
$131.69
Value
$131.6
PnL
-$0.09
Record
50%
24858-24564 (49422)
Invested
$137.23
Value
$117.52
PnL
-$19.71
Record
59%
45380-31733 (77113)
Invested
$46.4
Value
$44.94
PnL
-$1.46
Record
54%
6194-5243 (11437)
Invested
$51.67
Value
$43.71
PnL
-$7.96
Record
50%
10770-10596 (21366)
Invested
$34.33
Value
$32.58
PnL
-$1.75
Record
38%
3209-5230 (8439)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$9.18
Value
$9.3
PnL
+$0.73
Record
52%
4004-3650 (7654)
Invested
$4.08
Value
$5.88
PnL
+$1.8
Record
49%
12488-12848 (25336)
Invested
$1.67
Value
$1.87
PnL
+$0.21
Record
50%
33199-32726 (65925)
Invested
$1.19
Value
$1.41
PnL
+$0.21
Record
47%
2270-2553 (4823)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$0.33
Value
$0.33
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
56326-48479 (104805)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.