Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Viking FK: Both Teams to Score
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 57%
$2.0K
-$29.84
30.6¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 31.6¢ | $983.43 | $978.96 | -$4.48 | 59% 45380-31733 (77113) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Noavg 29.2¢ | $615.98 | $612.42 | -$3.56 | 50% 33199-32726 (65925) |
TO topdogbigboi | Yesavg 67.6¢ | $122.21 | $180.19 | +$57.98 | 38% 3209-5230 (8439) |
FO foooool | Yesavg 68.9¢ | $124.78 | $133.03 | +$8.25 | 50% 10770-10596 (21366) |
VA Vampiro1<$100 | Yesavg 94¢ | $78.33 | $57.08 | -$21.25 | 77% 3247-975 (4222) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Noavg 32¢ | $44.81 | $46.21 | +$1.4 | 54% 56326-48479 (104805) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 28.8¢ | $69.39 | $1.2 | -$68.19 | 58% 28421-20980 (49401) |
Invested
$983.43
Value
$978.96
PnL
-$4.48
Record
59%
45380-31733 (77113)
Invested
$615.98
Value
$612.42
PnL
-$3.56
Record
50%
33199-32726 (65925)
Invested
$122.21
Value
$180.19
PnL
+$57.98
Record
38%
3209-5230 (8439)
Invested
$124.78
Value
$133.03
PnL
+$8.25
Record
50%
10770-10596 (21366)
Invested
$78.33
Value
$57.08
PnL
-$21.25
Record
77%
3247-975 (4222)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$44.81
Value
$46.21
PnL
+$1.4
Record
54%
56326-48479 (104805)
Invested
$69.39
Value
$1.2
PnL
-$68.19
Record
58%
28421-20980 (49401)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.