Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-10-30?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 62¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$1.2K
-$13.68
62.8¢ → 61.5¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OL oliverea | Yesavg 63¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$15.87 | 59% 311-216 (527) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Yesavg 61.6¢ | $77.29 | $78.43 | +$1.14 | 58% 28411-20972 (49383) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 61.1¢ | $58.35 | $59.21 | +$0.86 | 52% 3994-3637 (7631) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Yesavg 60.5¢ | $6.05 | $6.25 | +$0.2 | 47% 2257-2545 (4802) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Yesavg 62¢ | $6.2 | $6.2 | -$0 | 50% 6968-6968 (13936) |
Invested
$1,029.05
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$15.87
Record
59%
311-216 (527)
Invested
$77.29
Value
$78.43
PnL
+$1.14
Record
58%
28411-20972 (49383)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$58.35
Value
$59.21
PnL
+$0.86
Record
52%
3994-3637 (7631)
Invested
$6.05
Value
$6.25
PnL
+$0.2
Record
47%
2257-2545 (4802)
Invested
$6.2
Value
$6.2
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
6968-6968 (13936)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.