Aalesunds FK vs. Sandefjord Fotball: O/U 4.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 97¢ · $27 held · ended Oct 31

Over97¢Under3¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$26.78

Combined PnL

-$16.25

Research grade

NeutralOver at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over97%

Under3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$21.57

Total Shares22

Combined PnL+$0.41

Under2 traders

Total Value$5.21

Total Shares60

Combined PnL-$16.65

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
poshposh<$100	Overavg 97¢	$16.72	$16.72	+$0.43	59% 10257-7240 (17497)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 25¢	$1.25	$4.85	-$0.03	48% 2424-2645 (5069)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 69¢	$13.8	$4	-$9.8	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$8.06	$1.21	-$6.85	49% 8081-8480 (16561)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$16.72

Value

$16.72

PnL

+$0.43

Record

59%

10257-7240 (17497)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$1.25

Value

$4.85

PnL

-$0.03

Record

48%

2424-2645 (5069)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.8

Value

PnL

-$9.8

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.06

Value

$1.21

PnL

-$6.85

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.