Aalesunds FK vs. Sandefjord Fotball: O/U 3.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 51¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$8.6K
$6.05
56¢ → 50.5¢
-10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA marketmesh | Underavg 56¢ | $8.4K | $8.4K | +$0 | 58% 96-69 (165) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Overavg 46.2¢ | $107.17 | $110.24 | +$3.07 | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 52¢ | $292.44 | $87.01 | +$2.33 | 58% 41929-30449 (72378) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $8.47 | $9.14 | +$0.67 | 53% 4646-4187 (8833) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 52.5¢ | $7.45 | $7.63 | -$0.03 | 48% 2396-2627 (5023) |
Invested
$8,392.92
Value
$8.4K
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
96-69 (165)
Invested
$107.17
Value
$110.24
PnL
+$3.07
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
VeryLucky888Invested
$292.44
Value
$87.01
PnL
+$2.33
Record
58%
41929-30449 (72378)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$8.47
Value
$9.14
PnL
+$0.67
Record
53%
4646-4187 (8833)
Invested
$7.45
Value
$7.63
PnL
-$0.03
Record
48%
2396-2627 (5023)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.