Will Aalesunds FK win on 2026-10-31?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 50¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
$3.4K
-$21.9
50¢ → 50¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xd0e952c49e2F8251350fbaBEEa8eAF3Eb0A067fF-1730820030728 | Yesavg 50¢ | $2.2K | $2.1K | -$22.22 | 50% 154-153 (307) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 50¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$0.2 | 59% 45810-32163 (77973) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $31.65 | $31.65 | +$0.32 | 53% 4616-4152 (8768) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Yesavg 48¢ | $4.8 | $5 | +$0.2 | 48% 2389-2622 (5011) |
Invested
$2,222
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$22.22
Record
50%
154-153 (307)
Invested
$1,279.28
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$0.2
Record
59%
45810-32163 (77973)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$31.65
Value
$31.65
PnL
+$0.32
Record
53%
4616-4152 (8768)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.2
Record
48%
2389-2622 (5011)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.