Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (79%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 22¢ · $266 held · ends Dec 9

Yes22¢No78¢Ends Wed, Dec 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$265.63

Combined PnL

-$29.33

Smart Money Entry

29.5¢ → 21.5¢

-27% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors No 79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$112.62

Total Shares490

Combined PnL-$32

No4 traders

Total Value$41.95

Total Shares48

Combined PnL+$2.67

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
2B9SARB<$100	Noavg 65¢	$321.46	$110.85	-$0.37	18% 4430-20777 (25207)
└ No leg	Noavg 65¢	$72.22	$86.67	+$11.45
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 34.2¢	$35.99	$24.18	-$11.82
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR	Yesavg 35.6¢	$288.62	$66.38	-$36.44	27% 7002-19130 (26132)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 21.4¢	$122.87	$28.26	+$1.95	45% 2914-3563 (6477)
Istaroth	Noavg 73.8¢	$498.71	$21.08	-$0.13	14% 513-3102 (3615)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.8¢	$81.36	$17.98	+$2.48	51% 290-283 (573)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 74¢	$14.46	$15.24	+$0.78	44% 6591-8244 (14835)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 48¢	$2.34	$3.68	+$1.34	43% 3223-4252 (7475)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 66¢	$1.77	$1.95	+$0.68	31% 3549-7933 (11482)

2B9SARB<$100

Invested

$321.46

Value

$110.85

PnL

-$0.37

Record

18%

4430-20777 (25207)

Both legs:

No$72.2265¢+$11.45

Yes$35.9934.2¢-$11.82

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR

Yes

Invested

$288.62

Value

$66.38

PnL

-$36.44

Record

27%

7002-19130 (26132)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$122.87

Value

$28.26

PnL

+$1.95

Record

45%

2914-3563 (6477)

Istaroth

Invested

$498.71

Value

$21.08

PnL

-$0.13

Record

14%

513-3102 (3615)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.36

Value

$17.98

PnL

+$2.48

Record

51%

290-283 (573)

korda77<$100

Invested

$14.46

Value

$15.24

PnL

+$0.78

Record

44%

6591-8244 (14835)

merod<$100

Invested

$2.34

Value

$3.68

PnL

+$1.34

Record

43%

3223-4252 (7475)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$1.77

Value

$1.95

PnL

+$0.68

Record

31%

3549-7933 (11482)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors No 79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.4%

21.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$327.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

427.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.