Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (75%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 26¢ · $258 held · ends Dec 9
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
1 arb excluded
$258.25
-$25.18
30.3¢ → 25.5¢
-16% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Late
738h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 2B9SARB<$100 | Yesavg 35¢ | $167.91 | $137.4 | -$10.51 | 17% 4496-22007 (26503) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 65¢ | $72.22 | $83.34 | +$8.12 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 35¢ | $75.69 | $54.06 | -$18.63 | |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR | Yesavg 36.2¢ | $104.55 | $72.16 | -$30.66 | 26% 7302-21086 (28388) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.8¢ | $18.91 | $31.97 | +$0.82 | 45% 2965-3664 (6629) |
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $9.6 | $11.25 | +$2.72 | 50% 292-287 (579) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 62.1¢ | $2.25 | $3.59 | +$1.34 | 34% 3309-6343 (9652) |
PL plainfolder<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $1.77 | $1.88 | +$0.6 | 31% 4458-9740 (14198) |
2B9SARB<$100Invested
$167.91
Value
$137.4
PnL
-$10.51
Record
17%
4496-22007 (26503)
Both legs:
Invested
$104.55
Value
$72.16
PnL
-$30.66
Record
26%
7302-21086 (28388)
Invested
$18.91
Value
$31.97
PnL
+$0.82
Record
45%
2965-3664 (6629)
Invested
$9.6
Value
$11.25
PnL
+$2.72
Record
50%
292-287 (579)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$3.59
PnL
+$1.34
Record
34%
3309-6343 (9652)
Invested
$1.77
Value
$1.88
PnL
+$0.6
Record
31%
4458-9740 (14198)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.