No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after December 2026 meeting?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 93¢ · $304 held · ends Dec 17
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 29%
$304.32
$96.05
79.6¢ → 93¢
+17% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+4 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
100h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH shiifoo | Yesavg 76.8¢ | $133.82 | $139.21 | +$16.87 | 47% 4083-4640 (8723) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Yesavg 86.6¢ | $58.82 | $58.56 | +$0.83 | 19% 2914-12353 (15267) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR | Noavg 9.3¢ | $290.23 | $52.22 | +$101.83 | 45% 3008-3697 (6705) |
GA GaditimaCTR<$100 | Noavg 11.2¢ | $54.63 | $39.32 | -$15.31 | 48% 7431-8151 (15582) |
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100 | Noavg 11.4¢ | $9.9 | $8.8 | -$1.1 | 51% 314-304 (618) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 13.1¢ | $6.78 | $4.13 | -$2.66 | 53% 23800-20961 (44761) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 20.8¢ | $6.5 | $2.08 | -$4.42 | 17% 396-1979 (2375) |
Invested
$133.82
Value
$139.21
PnL
+$16.87
Record
47%
4083-4640 (8723)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$58.82
Value
$58.56
PnL
+$0.83
Record
19%
2914-12353 (15267)
Invested
$290.23
Value
$52.22
PnL
+$101.83
Record
45%
3008-3697 (6705)
Invested
$54.63
Value
$39.32
PnL
-$15.31
Record
48%
7431-8151 (15582)
Invested
$9.9
Value
$8.8
PnL
-$1.1
Record
51%
314-304 (618)
Invested
$6.78
Value
$4.13
PnL
-$2.66
Record
53%
23800-20961 (44761)
Invested
$6.5
Value
$2.08
PnL
-$4.42
Record
17%
396-1979 (2375)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.