Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 1.4¢ · $678 held · ends Nov 5
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$677.86
$-4.9K
22.9¢ → 1.4¢
-94% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
721h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN anoin123CTR | Yesavg 23.4¢ | $5.0K | $289.94 | $-4.7K | 47% 473-533 (1006) |
HE HerrieDavis | Noavg 75.4¢ | $183.13 | $231.87 | +$48.73 | 36% 2079-3718 (5797) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $69.77 | $69.99 | +$0.22 | 56% 14220-11020 (25240) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 84.8¢ | $53.89 | $62.7 | +$8.81 | 42% 5279-7229 (12508) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR | Yesavg 15.9¢ | $268.8 | $22.76 | -$248.55 | 32% 4493-9632 (14125) |
Invested
$5,032.39
Value
$289.94
PnL
$-4.7K
Record
47%
473-533 (1006)
Invested
$183.13
Value
$231.87
PnL
+$48.73
Record
36%
2079-3718 (5797)
Invested
$69.77
Value
$69.99
PnL
+$0.22
Record
56%
14220-11020 (25240)
Invested
$53.89
Value
$62.7
PnL
+$8.81
Record
42%
5279-7229 (12508)
Invested
$268.8
Value
$22.76
PnL
-$248.55
Record
32%
4493-9632 (14125)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.