Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2026-10-28?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 72¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$3.4K
$-1.3K
74.7¢ → 71.5¢
-4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA Takon88 | Noavg 74.7¢ | $3.9K | $2.9K | $-1.1K | 59% 44-30 (74) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 25¢ | $697.97 | $419.11 | -$278.86 | 59% 44610-31007 (75617) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25.9¢ | $17.1 | $30.01 | +$12.91 | 49% 18605-19035 (37640) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 77.3¢ | $20.87 | $20.66 | -$0.21 | 53% 3056-2718 (5774) |
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.9¢ | $11.15 | $18.2 | +$7.05 | 63% 1075-624 (1699) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $13.07 | $12.29 | -$0.78 | 52% 5875-5510 (11385) |
Invested
$3,915.26
Value
$2.9K
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
59%
44-30 (74)
Invested
$697.97
Value
$419.11
PnL
-$278.86
Record
59%
44610-31007 (75617)
Invested
$17.1
Value
$30.01
PnL
+$12.91
Record
49%
18605-19035 (37640)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$20.87
Value
$20.66
PnL
-$0.21
Record
53%
3056-2718 (5774)
Invested
$11.15
Value
$18.2
PnL
+$7.05
Record
63%
1075-624 (1699)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$13.07
Value
$12.29
PnL
-$0.78
Record
52%
5875-5510 (11385)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.