Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will ADO Den Haag win on 2026-10-27?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 1.1¢ · $233 held · ended Oct 27

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$233.46

Combined PnL

$61.98

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$147.62

Total Shares293

Combined PnL+$94.64

Yes3 traders

Total Value$85.84

Total Shares164

Combined PnL-$32.67

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO lonmi2511	Noavg 17.9¢	$285.61	$145.66	+$94.54	63% 1048-604 (1652)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$74.23	$59.04	-$15.19	54% 2625-2252 (4877)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100	Yesavg 82¢	$28.76	$25.25	-$3.51	55% 1673-1368 (3041)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 26.6¢	$1.86	$1.96	+$0.1	54% 6004-5099 (11103)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$15.52	$1.55	-$13.97	50% 11972-12123 (24095)

lonmi2511

Invested

$285.61

Value

$145.66

PnL

+$94.54

Record

63%

1048-604 (1652)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.23

Value

$59.04

PnL

-$15.19

Record

54%

2625-2252 (4877)

VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.76

Value

$25.25

PnL

-$3.51

Record

55%

1673-1368 (3041)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$1.86

Value

$1.96

PnL

+$0.1

Record

54%

6004-5099 (11103)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.52

Value

$1.55

PnL

-$13.97

Record

50%

11972-12123 (24095)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.2%

1.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4439.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

4539.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.