Will Roda JC Kerkrade win on 2026-10-27?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 53¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
1 arb excluded
$2.2K
$52.48
50.4¢ → 52.5¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RA rabbitfoot1 | Yesavg 50.6¢ | $932.37 | $967.43 | +$35.06 | 53% 1100-972 (2072) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 49.9¢ | $823.82 | $798.61 | -$25.21 | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 49.9¢ | $586.26 | $558.45 | -$27.81 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 51.9¢ | $237.56 | $240.16 | +$2.59 | |
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 49.8¢ | $345.09 | $363.83 | +$18.73 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $35.84 | $35.46 | -$0.37 | 52% 5822-5445 (11267) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $25.53 | $25.34 | -$0.19 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
 us391CTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $18 | $17.6 | -$0.4 | 51% 1631-1570 (3201) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $2.6 | $2.25 | -$0.35 | 50% 7576-7601 (15177) |
Invested
$932.37
Value
$967.43
PnL
+$35.06
Record
53%
1100-972 (2072)
Invested
$823.82
Value
$798.61
PnL
-$25.21
Record
50%
24135-23755 (47890)
Both legs:
Invested
$345.09
Value
$363.83
PnL
+$18.73
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$35.84
Value
$35.46
PnL
-$0.37
Record
52%
5822-5445 (11267)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$25.53
Value
$25.34
PnL
-$0.19
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
us391CTR<$100Invested
$18
Value
$17.6
PnL
-$0.4
Record
51%
1631-1570 (3201)
Invested
$2.6
Value
$2.25
PnL
-$0.35
Record
50%
7576-7601 (15177)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.