Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold SBV Excelsior, while the market favors MVV Maastricht (68%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: SBV Excelsior (-2.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold SBV Excelsior (75%) · SBV Excelsior at 33¢ · $505 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
SBV Excelsior
4
SBV Excelsior 75%
$505.41
$58.86
26.3¢ → 32.5¢
+24% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralSBV Excelsior at 33%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors MVV Maastricht 68%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | SBV Excelsioravg 25.9¢ | $227.91 | $286.11 | +$58.19 | 59% 44632-31032 (75664) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | SBV Excelsioravg 27.1¢ | $172.7 | $146.75 | -$25.95 | 50% 24379-23989 (48368) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | SBV Excelsioravg 25.4¢ | $32.85 | $63.37 | +$30.52 | 50% 12125-12330 (24455) |
 HRTrading<$100 | MVV Maastrichtavg 72.7¢ | $13.08 | $9.18 | -$3.9 | 53% 3080-2737 (5817) |
Invested
$227.91
Value
$286.11
PnL
+$58.19
Record
59%
44632-31032 (75664)
Invested
$172.7
Value
$146.75
PnL
-$25.95
Record
50%
24379-23989 (48368)
Invested
$32.85
Value
$63.37
PnL
+$30.52
Record
50%
12125-12330 (24455)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$13.08
Value
$9.18
PnL
-$3.9
Record
53%
3080-2737 (5817)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.