Will SBV Excelsior win on 2026-10-28?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 70¢ · $263 held · ended Oct 28

Yes70¢No30¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$262.65

Combined PnL

$2.04

Smart Money Entry

70.2¢ → 70¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes70%

No30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$251.55

Total Shares354

Combined PnL-$1.07

No2 traders

Total Value$11.11

Total Shares37

Combined PnL+$3.11

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 70.4¢	$247.92	$246.55	-$1.37	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Noavg 19¢	$5.51	$8.7	+$3.19	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$4.7	$5	+$0.3	54% 6053-5127 (11180)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$2.49	$2.41	-$0.08	53% 3098-2756 (5854)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$247.92

Value

$246.55

PnL

-$1.37

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Invested

$5.51

Value

$8.7

PnL

+$3.19

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.7

Value

PnL

+$0.3

Record

54%

6053-5127 (11180)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$2.49

Value

$2.41

PnL

-$0.08

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 70%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.0%

70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$38.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

138.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.