Will NAC Breda win on 2026-10-28?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 88¢ · $402 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$401.89
-$68.81
89.1¢ → 88¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 90.3¢ | $408.68 | $338.19 | -$70.48 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 75¢ | $26.72 | $30.72 | +$4 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Noavg 10.8¢ | $22.41 | $21.66 | -$0.76 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Yesavg 90¢ | $9.45 | $9.48 | +$0.02 | 54% 6053-5127 (11180) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Noavg 16.8¢ | $3.44 | $1.84 | -$1.59 | 60% 9402-6388 (15790) |
Invested
$408.68
Value
$338.19
PnL
-$70.48
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$26.72
Value
$30.72
PnL
+$4
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
Invested
$22.41
Value
$21.66
PnL
-$0.76
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
Invested
$9.45
Value
$9.48
PnL
+$0.02
Record
54%
6053-5127 (11180)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$3.44
Value
$1.84
PnL
-$1.59
Record
60%
9402-6388 (15790)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.