Koninklijke HFC vs. Go Ahead Eagles: O/U 3.5
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 52¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 100%
$1.2K
$20.52
51.1¢ → 52¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 51.1¢ | $567.31 | $575.59 | +$8.27 | 50% 24148-23764 (47912) |
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 51¢ | $272.85 | $278.2 | +$5.35 | 59% 44322-30683 (75005) |
 poshposh | Overavg 51¢ | $219.3 | $223.6 | +$4.3 | 60% 9138-6084 (15222) |
 HRTrading | Overavg 51¢ | $135.6 | $138.2 | +$2.6 | 54% 2639-2268 (4907) |
Invested
$567.31
Value
$575.59
PnL
+$8.27
Record
50%
24148-23764 (47912)
Invested
$272.85
Value
$278.2
PnL
+$5.35
Record
59%
44322-30683 (75005)
poshposhInvested
$219.3
Value
$223.6
PnL
+$4.3
Record
60%
9138-6084 (15222)
HRTradingInvested
$135.6
Value
$138.2
PnL
+$2.6
Record
54%
2639-2268 (4907)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.