Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (95%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will FC Groningen win on 2026-10-29?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 5.0¢ · $849 held · ended Oct 29

Yes5¢No95¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$849

Combined PnL

$39.64

Smart Money Entry

47.7¢ → 5¢

-90% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$809.48

Total Shares1,278

Combined PnL+$33.49

No2 traders

Total Value$39.52

Total Shares43

Combined PnL+$6.15

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 48.3¢	$346.68	$409.13	+$62.46	50% 24706-24393 (49099)
0X 0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004CTR	Yesavg 38¢	$228	$225	-$3	56% 146-114 (260)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 66¢	$199.37	$173.65	-$25.72	59% 45140-31520 (76660)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 62.6¢	$20.63	$21.42	+$0.8	52% 3741-3403 (7144)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 63.7¢	$12.75	$18.1	+$5.35	54% 6145-5212 (11357)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 66¢	$1.94	$1.69	-$0.25	49% 12429-12737 (25166)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$346.68

Value

$409.13

PnL

+$62.46

Record

50%

24706-24393 (49099)

0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004CTR

Yes

Invested

$228

Value

$225

PnL

-$3

Record

56%

146-114 (260)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$199.37

Value

$173.65

PnL

-$25.72

Record

59%

45140-31520 (76660)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$20.63

Value

$21.42

PnL

+$0.8

Record

52%

3741-3403 (7144)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$12.75

Value

$18.1

PnL

+$5.35

Record

54%

6145-5212 (11357)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.94

Value

$1.69

PnL

-$0.25

Record

49%

12429-12737 (25166)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.3%

5.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1491.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

1591.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.