Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (82%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will FC Emmen win on 2026-10-29?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 18¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$6.6K
$27.87
65.5¢ → 18¢
-73% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 18%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 49.1¢ | $7.5K | $6.3K | $-1.3K | 50% 24706-24393 (49099) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 49.9¢ | $2.7K | $4.2K | +$1.6K | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 49.1¢ | $4.9K | $2.0K | $-2.8K | |
LH lhetorarCTR | Noavg 74¢ | $249.98 | $263.49 | +$13.51 | 70% 130-57 (187) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $17.6 | $28.8 | +$11.2 | 54% 6145-5212 (11357) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 25.6¢ | $19.83 | $15.85 | -$3.97 | 52% 3741-3403 (7144) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Yesavg 11.3¢ | $5.43 | $13.68 | +$8.26 | 51% 5930-5617 (11547) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $10.2 | $8.58 | -$1.62 | 59% 45140-31520 (76660) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $0.55 | $1.04 | +$0.49 | 49% 12429-12737 (25166) |
Invested
$7,524.15
Value
$6.3K
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
50%
24706-24393 (49099)
Both legs:
Invested
$249.98
Value
$263.49
PnL
+$13.51
Record
70%
130-57 (187)
Invested
$17.6
Value
$28.8
PnL
+$11.2
Record
54%
6145-5212 (11357)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$19.83
Value
$15.85
PnL
-$3.97
Record
52%
3741-3403 (7144)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$5.43
Value
$13.68
PnL
+$8.26
Record
51%
5930-5617 (11547)
Invested
$10.2
Value
$8.58
PnL
-$1.62
Record
59%
45140-31520 (76660)
Invested
$0.55
Value
$1.04
PnL
+$0.49
Record
49%
12429-12737 (25166)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
18.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.