Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Heracles Almelo win on 2026-10-29?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 4.0¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 29

Yes4¢No96¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$11.26

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$94.8

Total Shares184

Combined PnL-$11.74

Yes4 traders

Total Value$81.46

Total Shares160

Combined PnL+$23

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 57.6¢	$1.1K	$890.39	-$167.38	50% 24706-24393 (49099)
└ No leg	Noavg 57.6¢	$831.58	$706.85	-$124.74
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 62.9¢	$226.19	$183.54	-$42.65
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 55.8¢	$92.17	$82.54	-$9.63	52% 3741-3403 (7144)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$33.9	$50.86	+$16.95	59% 9718-6703 (16421)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$20	$25.5	+$5.5	67% 23216-11620 (34836)
LA lavendergooms<$100	Noavg 57.4¢	$14.5	$12.26	-$2.11	53% 2613-2361 (4974)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.55	+$0	54% 6145-5212 (11357)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$2	$2.55	+$0.55	68% 457-217 (674)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$1,057.77

Value

$890.39

PnL

-$167.38

Record

50%

24706-24393 (49099)

Both legs:

No$831.5857.6¢-$124.74

Yes$226.1962.9¢-$42.65

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$92.17

Value

$82.54

PnL

-$9.63

Record

52%

3741-3403 (7144)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.9

Value

$50.86

PnL

+$16.95

Record

59%

9718-6703 (16421)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20

Value

$25.5

PnL

+$5.5

Record

67%

23216-11620 (34836)

lavendergooms<$100

Invested

$14.5

Value

$12.26

PnL

-$2.11

Record

53%

2613-2361 (4974)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

6145-5212 (11357)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0.55

Record

68%

457-217 (674)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.2%

4.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1809.31

Max Loss

-$100.00

1909.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.