Spread: RKC Waalwijk (-1.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold BVV Barendrecht (67%) · BVV Barendrecht at 63¢ · $86 held · ended Oct 27
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Neutral
BVV Barendrecht
3
BVV Barendrecht 67%
$86.18
$4.19
Research grade
NeutralBVV Barendrecht at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 poshposhCTR<$100 | RKC Waalwijkavg 43¢ | $53.81 | $61.94 | +$8.13 | 60% 9116-6042 (15158) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | BVV Barendrechtavg 59¢ | $27.14 | $23.23 | -$3.91 | 50% 11961-12111 (24072) |
 HRTrading<$100 | BVV Barendrechtavg 52¢ | $1.04 | $1.01 | -$0.03 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.