Will Amsterdamsche FC win on 2026-10-29?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $363 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$363.14
$18.56
57.1¢ → 99.5¢
+74% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 57.1¢ | $316.51 | $329.9 | +$13.39 | 59% 45140-31520 (76660) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 59.4¢ | $13.64 | $16.93 | +$3.29 | 52% 3741-3403 (7144) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $7.22 | $8.87 | +$1.65 | 50% 24706-24393 (49099) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $3.91 | $4.15 | +$0.24 | 50% 33084-32648 (65732) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $2.03 | -$0.17 | 58% 28259-20841 (49100) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $1.11 | $1.26 | +$0.16 | 59% 9718-6703 (16421) |
Invested
$316.51
Value
$329.9
PnL
+$13.39
Record
59%
45140-31520 (76660)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$13.64
Value
$16.93
PnL
+$3.29
Record
52%
3741-3403 (7144)
Invested
$7.22
Value
$8.87
PnL
+$1.65
Record
50%
24706-24393 (49099)
Invested
$3.91
Value
$4.15
PnL
+$0.24
Record
50%
33084-32648 (65732)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.03
PnL
-$0.17
Record
58%
28259-20841 (49100)
poshposh<$100Invested
$1.11
Value
$1.26
PnL
+$0.16
Record
59%
9718-6703 (16421)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.