Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
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8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $3 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 100%
$2.73
-$114.17
1.9¢ → 0.1¢
-97% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagooddayCTR | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $285.49 | $2.06 | -$88.8 | 53% 3156-2749 (5905) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $10.63 | $0.26 | -$10.36 | 60% 7176-4688 (11864) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $5.85 | $0.18 | -$5.67 | 92% 8456-738 (9194) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $4.62 | $0.11 | -$4.51 | 25% 180-534 (714) |
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $2.04 | $0.05 | -$1.99 | 19% 49-210 (259) |
AK akrollCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $1.31 | $0.03 | -$1.28 | 30% 367-838 (1205) |
PO pollo07CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $1.25 | $0.03 | -$1.22 | 31% 364-814 (1178) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $0.34 | $0.01 | -$0.33 | 44% 4014-5074 (9088) |
Invested
$285.49
Value
$2.06
PnL
-$88.8
Record
53%
3156-2749 (5905)
Invested
$10.63
Value
$0.26
PnL
-$10.36
Record
60%
7176-4688 (11864)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$5.85
Value
$0.18
PnL
-$5.67
Record
92%
8456-738 (9194)
Invested
$4.62
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$4.51
Record
25%
180-534 (714)
Invested
$2.04
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$1.99
Record
19%
49-210 (259)
Invested
$1.31
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$1.28
Record
30%
367-838 (1205)
Invested
$1.25
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$1.22
Record
31%
364-814 (1178)
Invested
$0.34
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.33
Record
44%
4014-5074 (9088)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.