Spread: Senators (-1.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Capitals (50%) · Capitals at 70¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 11

Senators31¢Capitals69¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Capitals

Consensus Traders

Capitals 50%

Total Value

$20.2K

Combined PnL

$56.72

Smart Money Entry

69¢ → 69.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralCapitals at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Capitals

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Senators31%

Capitals70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Capitals3 traders

Total Value$16.5K

Total Shares23,742

Combined PnL+$119.39

Senators3 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares12,232

Combined PnL-$62.66

Capitals — 50%Senators — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Capitals. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCapitals 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Capitals 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Capitalsavg 69¢	$16.4K	$16.5K	+$118.49	54% 1612-1363 (2975)
HI hi774cCTR	Senatorsavg 31¢	$3.7K	$3.6K	-$59.58	8% 35-419 (454)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Senatorsavg 31¢	$93.23	$90.22	-$3.01	47% 781-864 (1645)
0xheavy888<$100	Capitalsavg 67¢	$26.77	$27.57	+$0.8	56% 105-81 (186)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Senatorsavg 31¢	$4.65	$4.58	-$0.08	48% 410-447 (857)
GH ghorrock<$100	Capitalsavg 67¢	$3.38	$3.48	+$0.1	51% 265-255 (520)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Capitals

Invested

$16,351.17

Value

$16.5K

PnL

+$118.49

Record

54%

1612-1363 (2975)

hi774cCTR

Senators

Invested

$3,693.98

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$59.58

Record

35-419 (454)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Senators

Invested

$93.23

Value

$90.22

PnL

-$3.01

Record

47%

781-864 (1645)

0xheavy888<$100

Capitals

Invested

$26.77

Value

$27.57

PnL

+$0.8

Record

56%

105-81 (186)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Senators

Invested

$4.65

Value

$4.58

PnL

-$0.08

Record

48%

410-447 (857)

ghorrock<$100

Capitals

Invested

$3.38

Value

$3.48

PnL

+$0.1

Record

51%

265-255 (520)

Research grade

NeutralCapitals at 70%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Capitals

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Capitals. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCapitals 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Capitals 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Capitals wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.