Capitals vs. Senators
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Senators (71%) · Senators at 53¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Senators
7
Senators 71%
$1.6K
-$13.06
53.6¢ → 52.5¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralSenators at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Senators. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Capitalsavg 47¢ | $719.01 | $726.66 | +$7.65 | 54% 1612-1363 (2975) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Senatorsavg 54¢ | $412.14 | $396.88 | -$15.26 | 35% 176-320 (496) |
38 38791873984189 | Senatorsavg 53¢ | $222.91 | $220.81 | -$2.1 | 47% 781-864 (1645) |
PA Pan9X | Senatorsavg 53.5¢ | $108.24 | $106.22 | -$2.02 | 48% 410-447 (857) |
WE westing.v1CTR<$100 | Capitalsavg 48¢ | $92.1 | $91.19 | -$0.91 | 5% 3-62 (65) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Senatorsavg 53¢ | $19.23 | $18.87 | -$0.36 | 51% 265-255 (520) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Senatorsavg 53¢ | $5.64 | $5.58 | -$0.05 | 68% 1590-741 (2331) |
Invested
$719.01
Value
$726.66
PnL
+$7.65
Record
54%
1612-1363 (2975)
Invested
$412.14
Value
$396.88
PnL
-$15.26
Record
35%
176-320 (496)
Invested
$222.91
Value
$220.81
PnL
-$2.1
Record
47%
781-864 (1645)
Invested
$108.24
Value
$106.22
PnL
-$2.02
Record
48%
410-447 (857)
Invested
$92.1
Value
$91.19
PnL
-$0.91
Record
5%
3-62 (65)
Invested
$19.23
Value
$18.87
PnL
-$0.36
Record
51%
265-255 (520)
Invested
$5.64
Value
$5.58
PnL
-$0.05
Record
68%
1590-741 (2331)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.