Capitals vs. Predators: O/U 6.5
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (17%) · Under at 52¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 17%
$5.3K
-$65.76
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-40 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Reformedx | Underavg 51.4¢ | $2.7K | $2.7K | -$20 | 52% 808-756 (1564) |
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$16.33 | 54% 2298-1976 (4274) |
 ComingBackCTR | Overavg 50¢ | $1.0K | $980 | -$30 | 61% 3901-2449 (6350) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $24.92 | $25.44 | +$0.52 | 55% 6996-5613 (12609) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $18.13 | $18.13 | +$0 | 58% 28259-20841 (49100) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $2.45 | +$0.05 | 47% 2189-2483 (4672) |
ReformedxInvested
$2,736.57
Value
$2.7K
PnL
-$20
Record
52%
808-756 (1564)
Invested
$1,599.85
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$16.33
Record
54%
2298-1976 (4274)
ComingBackCTRInvested
$1,000
Value
$980
PnL
-$30
Record
61%
3901-2449 (6350)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$24.92
Value
$25.44
PnL
+$0.52
Record
55%
6996-5613 (12609)
Invested
$18.13
Value
$18.13
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
28259-20841 (49100)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.45
PnL
+$0.05
Record
47%
2189-2483 (4672)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.