Spread: Capitals (-1.5)
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Predators (100%) · Predators at 68¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 30
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Neutral
Predators
2
Predators 100%
$1.1K
-$15.44
69¢ → 68¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralPredators at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x0A77exmm | Predatorsavg 69¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$16.23 | 54% 2298-1976 (4274) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Predatorsavg 69¢ | $13.61 | $14.4 | +$0.79 | 55% 7008-5622 (12630) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.