Jets vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (30%) · Under at 52¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 29

Over49¢Under51¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 30%

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

$187.66

Smart Money Entry

56.6¢ → 51.5¢

-9% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares7,178

Combined PnL+$60.67

Over7 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares4,518

Combined PnL+$126.99

Under — 30%Over — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 56.7¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$51.06	54% 17016-14265 (31281)
ComingBackCTR	Overavg 44¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$90.96	61% 3902-2449 (6351)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Overavg 43.8¢	$431.53	$472.4	+$40.87	54% 4827-4066 (8893)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 43¢	$430	$425	-$5	53% 5556-4922 (10478)
DA darkumbreon88	Underavg 55¢	$274.53	$284.51	+$9.98	65% 1696-914 (2610)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Overavg 43.8¢	$68.42	$66.36	-$2.05	53% 11512-10014 (21526)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Underavg 58¢	$43.5	$43.13	-$0.38	54% 2951-2534 (5485)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$28.98	$29.33	+$0.35	58% 28272-20850 (49122)
BA Bagwell306CTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$10.33	$11.8	+$1.48	59% 4031-2851 (6882)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$3.4	$3.8	+$0.4	49% 674-698 (1372)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$3,746.3

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$51.06

Record

54%

17016-14265 (31281)

ComingBackCTR

Over

Invested

$1,000.54

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$90.96

Record

61%

3902-2449 (6351)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Over

Invested

$431.53

Value

$472.4

PnL

+$40.87

Record

54%

4827-4066 (8893)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$430

Value

$425

PnL

-$5

Record

53%

5556-4922 (10478)

darkumbreon88

Under

Invested

$274.53

Value

$284.51

PnL

+$9.98

Record

65%

1696-914 (2610)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$68.42

Value

$66.36

PnL

-$2.05

Record

53%

11512-10014 (21526)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Under

Invested

$43.5

Value

$43.13

PnL

-$0.38

Record

54%

2951-2534 (5485)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$28.98

Value

$29.33

PnL

+$0.35

Record

58%

28272-20850 (49122)

Bagwell306CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.33

Value

$11.8

PnL

+$1.48

Record

59%

4031-2851 (6882)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.8

PnL

+$0.4

Record

49%

674-698 (1372)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.