Spread: Lightning (-2.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Lightning (67%) · Lightning at 63¢ · $147 held · ended Oct 29

Lightning63¢Jets37¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lightning

Consensus Traders

Lightning 67%

Total Value

$147.24

Combined PnL

-$4

Smart Money Entry

40.2¢ → 63¢

+57% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralLightning at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lightning

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lightning63%

Jets37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lightning6 traders

Total Value$106.01

Total Shares269

Combined PnL-$3.23

Jets3 traders

Total Value$41.22

Total Shares88

Combined PnL-$0.77

Lightning — 67%Jets — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Lightningavg 32.9¢	$40.93	$48.58	+$7.65	49% 683-711 (1394)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Jetsavg 40¢	$25.96	$26.61	+$0.65	52% 3834-3490 (7324)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Lightningavg 33¢	$16.5	$19.5	+$3	53% 11512-10014 (21526)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Lightningavg 32¢	$14.4	$14.85	-$0.23	58% 28294-20870 (49164)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Jetsavg 74¢	$15.64	$13.37	-$2.27	86% 4948-822 (5770)
5D 0x5d40...ba95<$100	Lightningavg 79¢	$18.41	$12.63	-$5.78	—
GH ghorrock<$100	Lightningavg 64¢	$8.84	$5.38	-$3.45	57% 13416-10256 (23672)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Lightningavg 73¢	$9.49	$5.07	-$4.42	54% 10577-9177 (19754)
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5CTR<$100	Jetsavg 13¢	$0.39	$1.24	+$0.85	—

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Lightning

Invested

$40.93

Value

$48.58

PnL

+$7.65

Record

49%

683-711 (1394)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$25.96

Value

$26.61

PnL

+$0.65

Record

52%

3834-3490 (7324)

BoomLaLa<$100

Lightning

Invested

$16.5

Value

$19.5

PnL

+$3

Record

53%

11512-10014 (21526)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Lightning

Invested

$14.4

Value

$14.85

PnL

-$0.23

Record

58%

28294-20870 (49164)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$15.64

Value

$13.37

PnL

-$2.27

Record

86%

4948-822 (5770)

0x5d40...ba95<$100

Lightning

Invested

$18.41

Value

$12.63

PnL

-$5.78

Record

—

ghorrock<$100

Lightning

Invested

$8.84

Value

$5.38

PnL

-$3.45

Record

57%

13416-10256 (23672)

justaluckydude<$100

Lightning

Invested

$9.49

Value

$5.07

PnL

-$4.42

Record

54%

10577-9177 (19754)

0x0d2d...7ff5CTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$0.39

Value

$1.24

PnL

+$0.85

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralLightning at 63%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lightning

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lightning wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.