Spread: Lightning (-1.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Jets (50%) · Jets at 56¢ · $4K held

Lightning45¢Jets55¢View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jets

Consensus Traders

Jets 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$21.9

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 55.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralJets at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jets

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lightning45%

Jets56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jets2 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares4,434

Combined PnL+$21.9

Lightning2 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,583

Combined PnL+$0

Jets — 50%Lightning — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Jets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJets 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrJets 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Jets 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Jetsavg 55¢	$4.3K	$2.4K	+$21.27	49% 669-690 (1359)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Lightningavg 45¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$0	54% 17008-14254 (31262)
0X 0x0A77exmm<$100	Jetsavg 54.7¢	$98.76	$99.38	+$0.63	54% 2298-1976 (4274)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Lightningavg 45¢	$58.69	$58.46	-$0.23	58% 28255-20837 (49092)
└ Lightning leg	Lightningavg 45¢	$37.8	$37.38	-$0.42
└ Jets leg	Jetsavg 55¢	$20.89	$21.08	+$0.19
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Lightningavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.25	+$0	47% 2177-2478 (4655)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Jets

Invested

$4,252.97

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$21.27

Record

49%

669-690 (1359)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Lightning

Invested

$1,610.03

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

17008-14254 (31262)

0x0A77exmm<$100

Jets

Invested

$98.76

Value

$99.38

PnL

+$0.63

Record

54%

2298-1976 (4274)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Lightning

Invested

$58.69

Value

$58.46

PnL

-$0.23

Record

58%

28255-20837 (49092)

Both legs:

Lightning$37.845¢-$0.42

Jets$20.8955¢+$0.19

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Lightning

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

2177-2478 (4655)

Research grade

NeutralJets at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Jets

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Jets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJets 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrJets 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Jets 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.