Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Jets, while the market favors Lightning (69%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Jets vs. Lightning
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Jets (83%) · Jets at 32¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Jets
6
Jets 83%
$7.8K
$14.08
32¢ → 31.5¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralJets at 32%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Lightning 69%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Jets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR | Jetsavg 32¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$0 | 54% 2297-1976 (4273) |
BA BabooouCTR | Jetsavg 32¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$0 | 52% 210-194 (404) |
CO cocococococo | Lightningavg 67.9¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$14.08 | 52% 1649-1523 (3172) |
RO royalestakeCTR | Jetsavg 32¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$0 | 46% 374-431 (805) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Jetsavg 32¢ | $14.4 | $14.4 | -$0 | 58% 28254-20837 (49091) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Jetsavg 32¢ | $9.47 | $9.47 | +$0 | 57% 13342-10199 (23541) |
Invested
$2,578.88
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
2297-1976 (4273)
Invested
$2,560
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
210-194 (404)
Invested
$1,496.83
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$14.08
Record
52%
1649-1523 (3172)
Invested
$1,119.99
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$0
Record
46%
374-431 (805)
Invested
$14.4
Value
$14.4
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
28254-20837 (49091)
Invested
$9.47
Value
$9.47
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13342-10199 (23541)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.