Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 13 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Jets vs. Panthers: O/U 5.5

13 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 44¢ · $21K held · ended Oct 30

Over56¢Under44¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 100%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.6K

Combined PnL

$2.2K

Smart Money Entry

44.9¢ → 44¢

-2% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under13 traders

Total Value$19.9K

Total Shares37,755

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Underavg 43.9¢	$8.2K	$10.4K	+$2.2K	54% 56379-48535 (104914)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Underavg 47¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$31.82	52% 374-341 (715)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 44.4¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$119.45	48% 783-852 (1635)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 43¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$69.44	54% 17124-14337 (31461)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Underavg 43.2¢	$847.99	$912.63	+$64.64	53% 3172-2798 (5970)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 43.2¢	$691.51	$561.31	+$40.02	46% 8071-9516 (17587)
└ Under leg	Underavg 43.2¢	$274.6	$356	+$106.68
└ Over leg	Overavg 58¢	$270.65	$205.32	-$66.66
heyboy800CTR	Underavg 60.2¢	$550	$456.49	-$93.51	61% 918-578 (1496)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Underavg 47¢	$385.25	$381.15	-$4.1	49% 19048-19445 (38493)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Underavg 44.1¢	$231.85	$244.53	+$12.68	59% 30405-21110 (51515)
TO torta.techCTR	Underavg 45¢	$216.7	$212.08	-$4.62	63% 8104-4850 (12954)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Underavg 43.9¢	$136	$145.64	+$9.64	38% 3268-5352 (8620)
└ Under leg	Underavg 43.9¢	$93.43	$86.12	-$7.31
└ Over leg	Overavg 42.6¢	$42.57	$59.51	+$16.94
HRTradingCTR	Underavg 42.1¢	$159.91	$142.7	-$17.21	52% 4099-3733 (7832)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$40.25	$67.91	+$27.66	59% 10007-6969 (16976)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$23.5	$23.5	+$0	53% 11542-10038 (21580)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 41.9¢	$19.4	$21.76	+$2.36	58% 28450-21016 (49466)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$8,150.63

Value

$10.4K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

54%

56379-48535 (104914)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Under

Invested

$2,990.61

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$31.82

Record

52%

374-341 (715)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$2,551.72

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$119.45

Record

48%

783-852 (1635)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$1,493

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$69.44

Record

54%

17124-14337 (31461)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Under

Invested

$847.99

Value

$912.63

PnL

+$64.64

Record

53%

3172-2798 (5970)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$691.51

Value

$561.31

PnL

+$40.02

Record

46%

8071-9516 (17587)

Both legs:

Under$274.643.2¢+$106.68

Over$270.6558¢-$66.66

heyboy800CTR

Under

Invested

$550

Value

$456.49

PnL

-$93.51

Record

61%

918-578 (1496)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Under

Invested

$385.25

Value

$381.15

PnL

-$4.1

Record

49%

19048-19445 (38493)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Under

Invested

$231.85

Value

$244.53

PnL

+$12.68

Record

59%

30405-21110 (51515)

torta.techCTR

Under

Invested

$216.7

Value

$212.08

PnL

-$4.62

Record

63%

8104-4850 (12954)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Under

Invested

$136

Value

$145.64

PnL

+$9.64

Record

38%

3268-5352 (8620)

Both legs:

Under$93.4343.9¢-$7.31

Over$42.5742.6¢+$16.94

HRTradingCTR

Under

Invested

$159.91

Value

$142.7

PnL

-$17.21

Record

52%

4099-3733 (7832)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$40.25

Value

$67.91

PnL

+$27.66

Record

59%

10007-6969 (16976)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23.5

Value

$23.5

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

11542-10038 (21580)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.4

Value

$21.76

PnL

+$2.36

Record

58%

28450-21016 (49466)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 44%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.