Spread: Panthers (-2.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Panthers (33%) · Panthers at 60¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 30

Panthers60¢Jets40¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Panthers

Consensus Traders

Panthers 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

-$518.6

Smart Money Entry

42.8¢ → 59.5¢

+39% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralPanthers at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Panthers

3 of 9 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Panthers60%

Jets41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Panthers3 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares7,119

Combined PnL-$722.11

Jets6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,035

Combined PnL+$203.51

Panthers — 33%Jets — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Jetsavg 54.9¢	$3.2K	$2.7K	-$450.86	48% 788-869 (1657)
└ Jets leg	Jetsavg 54.9¢	$2.1K	$1.5K	-$545.74
└ Panthers leg	Panthersavg 54.8¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$94.88
IV Ivan948	Panthersavg 43¢	$2.9K	$2.2K	-$752.78	45% 70-86 (156)
RN1CTR	Jetsavg 57¢	$879.51	$1.0K	+$169.73	54% 56399-48569 (104968)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Jetsavg 57¢	$167.31	$199.59	+$32.29	59% 30410-21120 (51530)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Jetsavg 40.4¢	$66.17	$73.9	+$7.73	38% 3323-5440 (8763)
└ Jets leg	Jetsavg 40.4¢	$45.91	$44.86	-$1.05
└ Panthers leg	Panthersavg 42.2¢	$20.26	$29.04	+$8.78
JU justaluckydude<$100	Panthersavg 48.9¢	$49.36	$61.11	+$11.74	54% 10681-9281 (19962)
38 38791873984189	Panthersavg 32¢	$112.03	$59.14	+$18.92	46% 8113-9541 (17654)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Jetsavg 57¢	$45.08	$53.48	+$8.4	53% 4191-3790 (7981)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Jetsavg 68¢	$39.44	$39.44	+$0	58% 28489-21037 (49526)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Jetsavg 72.5¢	$35.79	$28.19	-$7.5	85% 5165-880 (6045)
poshposhCTR<$100	Jetsavg 37¢	$8.83	$9.42	+$0.6	59% 10038-7001 (17039)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Jets

Invested

$3,182.35

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$450.86

Record

48%

788-869 (1657)

Both legs:

Jets$2,084.1154.9¢-$545.74

Panthers$1,098.2454.8¢+$94.88

Ivan948

Panthers

Invested

$2,942.68

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$752.78

Record

45%

70-86 (156)

RN1CTR

Jets

Invested

$879.51

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$169.73

Record

54%

56399-48569 (104968)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Jets

Invested

$167.31

Value

$199.59

PnL

+$32.29

Record

59%

30410-21120 (51530)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Jets

Invested

$66.17

Value

$73.9

PnL

+$7.73

Record

38%

3323-5440 (8763)

Both legs:

Jets$45.9140.4¢-$1.05

Panthers$20.2642.2¢+$8.78

justaluckydude<$100

Panthers

Invested

$49.36

Value

$61.11

PnL

+$11.74

Record

54%

10681-9281 (19962)

38791873984189

Panthers

Invested

$112.03

Value

$59.14

PnL

+$18.92

Record

46%

8113-9541 (17654)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$45.08

Value

$53.48

PnL

+$8.4

Record

53%

4191-3790 (7981)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$39.44

Value

$39.44

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

28489-21037 (49526)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$35.79

Value

$28.19

PnL

-$7.5

Record

85%

5165-880 (6045)

poshposhCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$8.83

Value

$9.42

PnL

+$0.6

Record

59%

10038-7001 (17039)

Research grade

NeutralPanthers at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Panthers

3 of 9 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Panthers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.