Spread: Panthers (-1.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Jets (67%) · Jets at 55¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 30

Panthers46¢Jets54¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jets

Consensus Traders

Jets 67%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$112.9

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 54.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralJets at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jets

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Panthers46%

Jets55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jets4 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares4,475

Combined PnL+$112.82

Panthers2 traders

Total Value$2.04

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$0.07

Jets — 67%Panthers — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x0A77exmm	Jetsavg 55¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$109.07	54% 2305-1987 (4292)
38 38791873984189<$100	Jetsavg 54¢	$54.66	$58.2	+$3.54	46% 7951-9381 (17332)
GH ghorrock<$100	Jetsavg 54¢	$2.74	$2.92	+$0.18	57% 13602-10422 (24024)
AN AnonymousUsername<$100	Jetsavg 54¢	$2.86	$2.88	+$0.03	45% 669-828 (1497)
poshposhCTR<$100	Panthersavg 39¢	$0.95	$1.03	+$0.08	59% 9923-6892 (16815)
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100	Panthersavg 46¢	$1.02	$1.01	-$0.01	57% 2154-1595 (3749)

0x0A77exmm

Jets

Invested

$2,399.65

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$109.07

Record

54%

2305-1987 (4292)

38791873984189<$100

Jets

Invested

$54.66

Value

$58.2

PnL

+$3.54

Record

46%

7951-9381 (17332)

ghorrock<$100

Jets

Invested

$2.74

Value

$2.92

PnL

+$0.18

Record

57%

13602-10422 (24024)

AnonymousUsername<$100

Jets

Invested

$2.86

Value

$2.88

PnL

+$0.03

Record

45%

669-828 (1497)

poshposhCTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$0.95

Value

$1.03

PnL

+$0.08

Record

59%

9923-6892 (16815)

NordhavenCapCTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$1.02

Value

$1.01

PnL

-$0.01

Record

57%

2154-1595 (3749)

Research grade

NeutralJets at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Jets

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.