Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Jets, while the market favors Panthers (68%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Jets vs. Panthers
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Jets (80%) · Jets at 33¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Jets
5
Jets 80%
$1.8K
$276.94
31.5¢ → 32.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralJets at 33%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Panthers 68%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO roldyCTR | Jetsavg 31¢ | $829.28 | $1.1K | +$267.51 | 55% 1415-1178 (2593) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Jetsavg 32.3¢ | $385.56 | $387.73 | +$2.16 | 46% 7787-9202 (16989) |
HI hi774cCTR | Jetsavg 32¢ | $328.82 | $333.96 | +$5.14 | 52% 4697-4417 (9114) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Jetsavg 32.5¢ | $11.2 | $14.13 | +$2.93 | 57% 13509-10335 (23844) |
CO cocococococo<$100 | Panthersavg 64.3¢ | $9.71 | $8.91 | -$0.8 | 52% 1653-1523 (3176) |
Invested
$829.28
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$267.51
Record
55%
1415-1178 (2593)
Invested
$385.56
Value
$387.73
PnL
+$2.16
Record
46%
7787-9202 (16989)
Invested
$328.82
Value
$333.96
PnL
+$5.14
Record
52%
4697-4417 (9114)
Invested
$11.2
Value
$14.13
PnL
+$2.93
Record
57%
13509-10335 (23844)
Invested
$9.71
Value
$8.91
PnL
-$0.8
Record
52%
1653-1523 (3176)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.