Jets vs. Hurricanes

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Hurricanes (83%) · Hurricanes at 72¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 1

Jets28¢Hurricanes72¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hurricanes

Consensus Traders

Hurricanes 83%

Total Value

$14.6K

Combined PnL

$72.53

Smart Money Entry

72.1¢ → 71.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralHurricanes at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hurricanes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Jets28%

Hurricanes72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hurricanes5 traders

Total Value$11.2K

Total Shares15,598

Combined PnL-$89.17

Jets1 trader

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares10,572

Combined PnL+$161.7

Hurricanes — 83%Jets — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Hurricanes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJets 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpJets 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrHurricanes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedHurricanes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hurricanes 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO royalestake	Hurricanesavg 72¢	$6.5K	$6.4K	-$45	47% 387-441 (828)
CO cocococococo	Hurricanesavg 72.2¢	$4.5K	$4.5K	-$44.73	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Jetsavg 27¢	$3.3K	$3.5K	+$161.7	72% 6831-2625 (9456)
0xheavy888	Hurricanesavg 71¢	$142	$143	+$1	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Hurricanesavg 72¢	$53.2	$53.08	-$0.12	57% 29237-21622 (50859)
HE Herdonia<$100	Hurricanesavg 72¢	$45.39	$45.39	-$0.32	54% 3403-2950 (6353)

royalestake

Hurricanes

Invested

$6,480

Value

$6.4K

PnL

-$45

Record

47%

387-441 (828)

cocococococo

Hurricanes

Invested

$4,531.49

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$44.73

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Jets

Invested

$3,296.67

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$161.7

Record

72%

6831-2625 (9456)

0xheavy888

Hurricanes

Invested

$142

Value

$143

PnL

+$1

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Hurricanes

Invested

$53.2

Value

$53.08

PnL

-$0.12

Record

57%

29237-21622 (50859)

Herdonia<$100

Hurricanes

Invested

$45.39

Value

$45.39

PnL

-$0.32

Record

54%

3403-2950 (6353)

Research grade

NeutralHurricanes at 72%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Hurricanes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Hurricanes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJets 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpJets 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrHurricanes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedHurricanes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hurricanes 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hurricanes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.